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Nikkei 225 Summary BOJ holds rates at 0.5%; Nikkei extends gains on heavy volume; Nasdaq higher on Facebook and Microsoft Q2 earnings beat - Thu 31 Jul 2025 Logistics firm Yamato (+12.77%) leads gainers as it ties up with Mitsubishi Motors and Ample to pilot battery swapping EVs in Tokyo from September 2025. BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda holds rates steady at 0.5% in view of uncertainties over the implementation of the US-Japan trade deal and underlying demand-driven inflation that's still below the BOJ target of 2%. Meanwhile, S&P500 and Nasdaq trading higher in the morning on Facebook and Microsoft's Q2 earnings beat. However, minor gains were erased with a weak close today. Nikkei225  41,069.82 (+415.12 +1.02%) 178 up 46 down 1 flat JGB 10YR   1.556% (-0.003)             USD/JPY    150.72 (+1.22 +0.82%)  

Nikkei 225 Summary BOJ holds rates steady as Nikkei rallies; Wall Street slips on slowing May retail sales - Tue 17 Jun 2025 Nikkei extends its broad-based rally for a second day led by chipmakers as BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda holds short term interest rates steady at 0.5% to accomodate for uncertainties in US trade and tariff policies.   BOJ will also slow down its pace of bond tapering by half, from 400 mil to 200 mil to help stabilize long term bond yields at future JGB auctions. Meanwhile, Wall Street slips on slowing May retail sales which contracted 0.9%, worse than expected. Nikkei225  38,536.74 (+225.41 +0.59%) 136 up 83 down 6 flat JGB 10YR   1.48% (+0.029)             USD/JPY    145.05 (+0.33 +0.23%)  

14 March 2025 - Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE)'s 3-Month TONA Futures achieved an open interest milestone of 100,000 contracts, reaching 100,335 contracts on March 13, 2025. OSE's TONA is a leading Japan STIR futures market among world exchanges, with the largest trading volume and open interest. Since the late 1990s, yen interest rates have remained at historically low levels. However, following the removal of negative interest rates and the abandonment of Yield Curve Control (YCC) in March 2024, along with two policy rate hikes in July 2024 and January 2025, JPY interest rates are once again moving. As demand for risk management grows in response to potential future monetary policy changes, more domestic and international financial institutions are entering the market to hedge against further rate hikes, expanding the investor base. The growing open interest in OSE’s 3-Month TONA Futures reflects the increasing number of market participants using the measure f...

BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi noted on Wednesday that having another rate hike too soon may disrupt the trend of rising wages and consumer prices and more time is needed for monitoring the effects of the Jan rate hike to 0.5% on the broader economy and how core inflation will develop. While another rate hike will be considered, polls suggest that there is a 60% probability of the BOJ holding rates steady at 0.5% for the upcoming policy meeting on Mar. 18 (Tues.), 19 (Wed.) 2025.    

The BOJ has decided to raise short-term interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) to 0.5% by a 8-to-1 vote at the end of its policy meeting on Friday to slow down inflation and allow more time for wage increases to catch up. This rate hike did not crash the Nikkei, unlike in August 2024 as most of the algo-driven yen carry trade have likely been unwounded last year. This marks the highest rate since 2008 as the BOJ believes that a virtuous cycle of rising wages and consumer prices have started in Japan. The BOJ has indicated its willingness to continue raising rates to durably achieve its 2% inflation target. The BOJ's next policy meeting will be held on Mar. 18 (Tues.) and 19 (Wed.) 2025.    

Based on recent communications from the Bank of Japan (BOJ), polls suggest a 60% chance that the BOJ will hold rates steady at 0.25% again at the upcoming policy meeting on Jan. 23 (Thurs.) and 24 (Fri.) 2025. This would enable the BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda to further assess the impact of incoming US President Trump's trade policies on Japan. The BOJ is also interested in the outcome of Japan's spring wage negotiations and China's fiscal and monetary policies for 2025, largely determined by Chinese President Xi Jinping's priorities to revive growth in China. Fiscal policy involves government spending and taxation decisions made by the government to influence the economy, while monetary policy refers to the management of the money supply and interest rates by a central bank, like the Federal Reserve, PBOC and BOJ, to achieve economic goals. Both policies aim to stabilize and stimulate economic growth but operate through different mechanisms.

Nikkei225 Summary Thu 12 Dec 2024 - Japan’s Nikkei rises 476 points crossing 40,000 in the morning, mirroring Nasdaq's leap past 20,000 for the very first time overnight. This comes on the back of mild US CPI data for Nov at 2.7%, increasing just 0.1% from Oct and raising the prospect of a Fed 0.25% rate cut next week 18 Dec.(Wed) Additionally, polls suggest a 60% chance the BOJ will not raise rates at next week's policy meeting on Dec 18-19 (Wed-Thu) pending more information on new US trade policies and Japan's spring wage negotiations. BOJ also will likely do the politically correct thing to not spoil the christmas party. Nikkei225  39,849.14 (+476.91 +1.21%) 174 up 48 down 3 flat Topix   2,773.03 (+23.72 +0.86%)    REIT    1,633.98 (+0.18 +0.01%) JGB 10YR  1.051% (-0.0212)                              ...

Nikkei225 Summary Mon 18 Nov 2024 - Japan’s Nikkei falls 422 points tracking Wall Street's losses last week. BOJ chief Ueda, in a speech to business leaders in Nagoya, says he is still monitoring developments in US and China and notes that wage hike is not yet outpacing inflation, hinting that interest rates may not be raised so soon in Dec's policy meeting. Nikkei225  38,220.85 (-422.06 -1.09%) 89 up 132 down 4 flat Topix  2,691.76 (-19.88 0.73%) REIT   1,675.77 (+13.09 0.78%) JGB 10YR  1.076% (+0.0012)                 USD/JPY  154.66 (-0.03 -0.02%)     Crude Oil  69.07 (+2.05 +3.06%) Top Performers M3 Inc.     ¥1,320.00 (+70.50 +5.64%) - online medical services Ryohin Keikaku Co. Ltd.     ¥2,938.00 (+153.00 +5.49%) - muji store retail Mercari Inc.     ¥1,987.00 (+62.00 +3.22%) - online retail Bottom Per...

The Bank of Japan has decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 0.25% at the end of its two day monetary policy meeting from Oct 30 to 31. BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda believes that new risk for Japan's economy may emerge under the policies of a new US president after 5 Nov's US presidential election and will continue to monitor the outcome for the time being.  

Tue 9 Oct 2024 - The Bank of Japan's next monetary policy meeting will be held on Oct 30 to 31 (Wed to Thu), 2024. A recent poll suggests that there will be an 80% chance that the BOJ will hold rates steady as BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda needs more time to assess the impact of US rate cuts on Japan's financial markets and economy. Furthermore, PM Ishiba has been thinking aloud that the current environment is not appropriate for another rate hike, giving Ueda san another good reason to hold rates steady at 0.25%, for the upcoming Oct meeting.